A Guide for Uncertainty Analysis in Dose and Risk by National Council On Radiation Protection (Other Contributor)

By National Council On Radiation Protection (Other Contributor)

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Additional resources for A Guide for Uncertainty Analysis in Dose and Risk Assessments Related to Environmental Contamination (N C R P Report)

Sample text

Sometimes group elicitations may generate more ideas and information and also produce more accurate data than elicitations from each expert in private. Several methods for group interaction are available, including open forums, Delphi panels, group probability encoding, and formal group evaluation (Roberds, 1990). The Delphi panel method was developed to reduce bias arising from group dynamics. This approach requires each expert to develop his information in private. Then the information from each expert is collected by the support personnel, made anonymous, and distributed to all experts, who are then allowed to change their original input.

Niform distribution. T 60 70 90 T 7 10 14 values for the HQ. 10). 5, top). It is also possible to determine a 95 percent subjective confidence interval of the percentile for a given value of the HQ. 5, bottom). Ideally, the Monte Carlo simulation would have included many more than 59 realizations of the distribution of individual values of the HQ. However, for the sake of calculational convenience, the number of alternative realizations in this Example was limited to 59 (and the sampling error in each realization is assumed to be negligible).

When teams of experts are used, the number of experts is apt to be large because each team provides an overall judgment rather than each individual. Practical evidence on the best number of experts to use is hard to come by. Winkler (1971) found little benefit from using more than five or six judgments when predicting football scores. Practice in risk analysis indicates that from 4 to 12 experts should be used in a panel format, with 6 to 8 being a good middle ground. Because experts usually share knowledge to some extent, judgments are often correlated, and thus the combined judgment of many experts carries less information than would be the case if the experts were independent.

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